Appraisal Step

Review ESE Models relative to Appraisal objectives
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Integrate any links to other models or products of analyses.
The model you have developed may require external data from sources such as third part models; these may include inputs such as economic and meteorological models. Now that the component model has been completed, these external sources of information should be attached to your model, either directly, so that as the third party model is run, its outputs feed into your model, or as a soft connection whereby the third party model is run separately and the output data are fed into your model as a data set.

Output – component models with external sources of data included
Example | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Run ESE Models separately for purposes of Interpretive analyses
At this stage the sub system models will be compared to each other to ensure that they represent the system as closely as possible, and produce reasonable results under known conditions.

Output – ESE component models which when run individually, represent their sub system in a sufficiently realistic manner.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Functionality of the Natural Component (NC) Model: Results, Limits, Ecosystem Stability, Restorative Potential.
Each of the ESE component models needs to be fully checked to ensure that it represents the part of the system that it is designed to represent.  A series of runs will carried out on each of the component models to identify any problems prior to their inclusion in the full simulation model.

Output – Documentation showing the interpretive analysis of the ecological component model.
Example | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Scope of Economic Component (EC) Model: Results, Limits, Opportunities for Sustainable Development.
Each of the ESE component models needs to be fully checked to ensure that it represents the part of the system that it is designed to represent.  A series of runs will carried out on each of the component models to identify any problems prior to their inclusion in the full simulation model.

Output – Documentation showing the interpretive analysis of the economic component model.
Example | Example 2 | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Scope of Social Component (SC) Model: Results; Limits, Relevance to Sustainable Development, Role of Stakeholders and Governance
Each of the ESE component models needs to be fully checked to ensure that it represents the part of the system that it is designed to represent.  A series of runs will carried out on each of the component models to identify any problems prior to their inclusion in the full simulation model.

Output – Documentation showing the interpretive analysis of the social component model.
Example | Example 2 | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Review Inputs, linkages, outputs for the Simulation Model
It is important at this stage to ensure that it is possible for the sub system models to be joined together, that is that there are common variables between models, or that it is possible to have a common linking variable, which will result in the outputs of one sub model acting as the inputs to the other, and visa versa. Likewise it should be insured that the models run on the same time step so as to allow the sub models to interaction with each other. These processes should also be documented for future reference.

Output – ESE component models running on compatible time steps and with links between those models identified.
Example | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Construct Simulation Model by linking up the ESE models
Now that you have suitable sub models, it is possible to link them together to form the simulation model of the whole system. This will be the model on which your management options in the form of scenarios will be run on, the results of which will be used in the output step to inform deliberation with the stakeholder group. The subsystem models should be linked wherever common variables are present, and through linking variables where possible. Links should be made to external models as identified in the 5.1a.

Output – Linked simulation model comprising of ESE component models joined together as a system model.
Example | Example 2 | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Verify the Simulation Model, conduct Sensitivity tests, Error analysis, and Document
As the simulation model will form the basis of the information to be provided to the stakeholder group, any errors in t he model must be identified, quantified and documented. The model should be checked to ensure it produces logical result (verification). The sensitivity of the model to changes in the various forcing functions should also be documented to show which changes are likely to have the greatest effect.

Output – a documented simulation model that produces logical results.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Conduct a Hindcast simulation with Policy or other change
The model should now be running in a logical manner, however it now needs to be validated using hindcasting.  This involves undertaking a simulation run on the model using historical driving data as a scenario and comparing the outputs from the model to what occurred int eh real world.  If these simulations do not match with the observed data that it may be necessary to re-examine ht e model to discover where errors lie..

Output – A calibrated and validated simulation model of the system.
Example | Example 2 | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Review and evaluate priority and feasibility of scenarios
Initially the developed scenarios must be reviewed to determine if they are feasible and prioritize which are most likely to be used. Once these have been selected they should be interpreted in the context of the model. That is determining how much to change forcing functions in the model to reflect these scenarios, and to generate the data which will do this. This may require further data collection or inputs from external models.

Output – identified scenarios to be applied to the simulation model which will represent the proposed management options.
Example | Example 2 | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Generate necessary input data for selected scenarios
The scenarios you have selected to apply to the model will require changes to the input data driving the model in keeping with those scenarios.  Depending on the type of scenario this may be a simple as changing that input data by a given amount, or it may require the running of a third party model with changes to its input parameters so as to provide input data for the simulation model.

Output – data available in a suitable format to drive the simulation model under the selected scenarios.
Example | Example 2 | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Prepare, conduct, and test scenario versions of the Simulation Model
Once this has been done these scenarios should then be applied to the model in a simulation run This represents outputs of your model and is the data which will be used in the output step to inform the stakeholder group of your findings.

Output – simulation output values from the simulation model that reflect changes caused by applying the scenarios.
Example | Example 2 | Example 3 | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Document Results of Scenarios
The scenarios, the data generated or used for those scenarios, and the outputs of the simulations using those scenarios should be documents as a record of your modelling activity.

Output – A description of the scenarios used on the model, and the outputs of those scenarios from model runs.
Example | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Describe and Interpret the Hindcast and Scenario modelling results
This task is the documentation of the outputs of the modelling process, producing a package of scientific information which will be interpreted in the output step for dissemination to the stakeholder group and used in the deliberation process. As such you should describe the hindcast validation that you have undertaken on the model, and also the results of applying scenarios to your model.

Output – documentation of the validation process and application of scenarios on the simulation model.
Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Complete Collateral Analyses
You will also need to be clear about the limitations of your models so as to ensure scientific credibility as well as credibility of the stakeholder group. You need to provide information on the accuracy and reliability of your model. You should describe assumptions made about the system you are modelling and also the risk of things being introduced to the system in the real world which would render your results void. Such things could include the introduction of alien species or large scale pollution events. You should also indicate to what extent the system you have modelled is susceptible to changes outside of the system which cannot be influenced by the management options you are considering.  You should then give an overview of the final model, identifying where you have linked sub systems, where data from other models has been included, and where there are feedback loops operating between sub systems.
Example | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task

Draft the conclusions of the Simulation Analysis
Based on this documentation, you are now in a position to start drawing conclusions from the simulation analysis you have undertaken these will form the basis of the material to be provided to the stakeholder group in the outputs step, an could support publication of your results in scientific publications.

Output – A document which comprehensively describes the model.
Example | Instructions on how to carry out this sub task