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Run Scenario Simulations

Subtask Description:
Prepare, conduct, and test scenario versions of the simulation model.

Action points of the implementation:
Scenarios should then be applied to the model in a simulation run. This represents outputs of your model and is the data which will be used in the output step to inform the stakeholder group of your findings.

Result: Simulation output values from the simulation model that reflect changes caused by applying the scenarios.

Area:
Himmerfjärden , Sweden

Policy Issue:
Eutrophication status and reduction.

Human Activities:
Urban sewage discharge, agriculture and industrial activity, tourism.

General Information:
Nutrient loading has caused increased turbidity, loss of biodiversity, including submerged aquatic vegetation, deep water oxygen def iciency, phytoplankton blooms and biodiversity loss. The main stakeholder concerns are connected with tourism, recreational activities and nature enjoyment, and the sustainable implementation of WFD that poses economic challenges for several activities in the area.

Example of Implementation:
Policy options bear on agriculture (wetland creation AGR), private sewers (PS) and sewage treatment plants (HSTP). Four scenarios (three different policy options plus a “no measure” option) illustrating different management strategies and reflecting a diversity of combinations have been selected for implementation over the three river basins (HI-Himmerfjärden, HA-Hallsfjärden, NA-Näslandsfjärden).

Results of the scenario runs 1-4 as summer averages for the period 1997- 2000:

Costs:
Cost-effectiveness of policy options according to scenario

Benefits of the Secchi depth improvement achieved in scenarios:
Summed present value of costs and benefits (several estimates) for scenarios

Benefit estimates are adjusted for economic and population growth. They are calculated for 30 years and discounted with a social discount rate of 4%.

Contact: Jakob Walve jakob.walve@ecology.su.se and Frida Franzen frida@enveco.se